Table of Contents
How accurate is ShadowStats?
Up until around 1982, the ShadowStats CPI estimate is identical to the US Government’s CPI reported numbers. If the ShadowStats’s estimate is correct, it means that a change rolled out to the CPI in the early 1990s, which resulted in perhaps a 1.5 percentage point change, ramps up over three decades to where it is now.
What is the real inflation rate for 2021?
6.2\%
The annual rate of inflation in the United States hit 6.2\% in October 2021, the highest in more than three decades, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Other inflation metrics also have shown significant increases in recent months, though not to the same extent as the CPI.
What is the true US inflation rate?
Inflation statistics given by the U.S. government show that the inflation rate is below 2\%, but widely available data indicate otherwise.
What is the real inflation in the UK?
UK inflation rate 2021 – live: Price rises at highest in a decade at 4.2\% amid fears over Covid recovery.
Who runs shadow stats?
Walter John Williams
Shadowstats.com
| Type of site | Analyses Government Economic & Unemployment Statistics |
|---|---|
| Headquarters | Petaluma, CA – USA |
| Owner | Walter John Williams |
| URL | shadowstats.com |
| Current status | Online |
What is shadow inflation?
Shadow inflation refers to a type of inflation that is much harder to capture in the consumer price index. That’s because the price of a good or service may stay the same, but the quality has gone down.
What is the highest inflation rate in US history?
Since the founding of the United States in 1776, the highest year-over-year inflation rate observed was 29.78 percent in 1778. In the period of time since the introduction of the CPI, the highest inflation rate observed was 19.66 percent in 1917.
What country has the highest inflation rate?
Venezuela
1. Venezuela. With an inflation rate of 9,986\%, Venezuela has the highest inflation rate in the world. This is lower than Venezuela’s previous inflation rate of 14,291\%.
Are inflation calculators accurate?
Not a very accurate way to measure inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines inflation “as a process of continuously rising prices or equivalently, of a continuously falling value of money.” The CPI doesn’t even touch the falling value of money. If it did the CPI would look much different.
What is the inflation rate in China?
The annual average inflation rate in China ranged at 2.5 percent in 2020….Monthly inflation rate in China from October 2019 to October 2021.
| Characteristic | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|
| Jan ’21 | -0.3\% |
| Dec ’20 | 0.2\% |
| Nov ’20 | -0.5\% |
| Oct ’20 | 0.5\% |
Will the UK increase inflation?
Latest economic forecasts from the Bank of England show that it expects inflation to peak at 4\% in 2021 – a ten-year high – against a previous prediction of 2.5\%, Sky News reported. Although twice the government-set target, the Bank said it would be “transitory” and inflation will return to 2\% in the medium term.
Are Shadowstats’ inflation numbers out of touch with reality?
So ShadowStats does seem to imply that the “correct” measure is the 1980-based. To sum up, no matter how you dice it, it seems to me that ShadowStats’ inflation numbers are out of touch with reality, and so, inflation is very unlikely to be anywhere close to 10\%.
Why does Shadowstats use the 1980-based inflation measure?
Because the changes started in 1980, they provide the 1980-based version as a measure of what inflation would be like if it was calculated the way it was before the government began “fudging the numbers”. So ShadowStats does seem to imply that the “correct” measure is the 1980-based.
When did Shadowstats’s estimate of CPI diverge from the US government’s?
Up until around 1982, the ShadowStats CPI estimate is identical to the US Government’s CPI reported numbers. ShadowStats’ estimate of CPI diverges in the early 1980s, however, after around 1992 to 1993, it diverges very significantly.
How high should headline inflation be?
Using the same data collection and calculation methodologies as the Bureau of Labor Statistics used in the 1980s, John Williams, the founder of ShadowStats, determined that headline inflation should be much higher than 5.4\%, the latest June release.